Lower Border Crossings and the Impact on Retail Sales

Border crossing activity in Whatcom County remains below prior levels, and that appears to be affecting retail spending in the county.

Because the local retail market has long benefited from shopping demand from Canadian visitors, weaker cross-border traffic can have a measurable impact on taxable retail sales. The following graph shows cross-border traffic in 2025 relative to 2024.

The overall drop in 2025 was 24.0% from the prior year. However, it does not appear that conditions are continuing to worsen. January 2026 was down 21.2% from the prior year, which is an improvement from April 2025, when crossings were 35.0% below the prior year. The decline also coincided with the implementation of tariffs on Canadian goods on March 4, 2025. The following graph shows the year-over-year change. It appears that some Canadians may be starting to return.

It would make sense that reduced border traffic would translate into lower retail sales in Whatcom County. Although the changes are not as dramatic as the decline in border crossings, retail sales in Whatcom County do appear to reflect shifting travel patterns. The following graph shows retail sales in Whatcom County over the past several years.

Sales in 2025 showed only a 0.1% increase over 2024 in Whatcom County. That was well below the 2.8% increase in Washington State. Whatcom County also posted only a modest gain from 2024 over 2023, at 1.5%, although Washington State performed even worse during that period, with growth of just 1.1%.

The gap suggests that Whatcom County is not participating in statewide retail growth to the same extent as the rest of Washington. Given the county’s exposure to Canadian shopping traffic, the weaker border crossing numbers appear consistent with the weaker retail sales performance.